IDC: iPhone Could Gain Share in 2026 as Memory Shortage Hits Android

The global smartphone market will contract 12.9 percent in 2026 due to an unprecedented memory chip shortage, with total shipments falling to 1.1 billion units from 1.26 billion in 2025, according to IDC data detailed in a Bloomberg report. The downturn is expected to weigh more heavily on low-cost Android manufacturers, while premium devices such as Apple’s iPhone lineup are projected to remain comparatively resilient.

Memory Shortage Driven by AI Demand

IDC describes the current supply crunch as “a crisis like no other.” Demand for advanced DRAM and NAND memory used in artificial intelligence workloads has absorbed global production capacity, tightening availability across the electronics sector. The shortage is expected to persist well into next year.

Modern smartphones rely heavily on DRAM for multitasking and AI-driven features, and on NAND flash for storage. As component prices rise, manufacturers face higher bill-of-material costs at a time when consumer demand remains price sensitive.

Budget Android Models Face Margin Pressure

IDC expects the memory shortage to impact low-cost Android devices most severely. Many Android brands operate on thin profit margins, particularly in the entry-level and midrange segments. Higher memory prices compress those margins further, making certain models economically unviable.

Your Complete iOS 26 Playbook:

Get our exclusive Ultimate iOS 26 Guide 📚 — absolutely FREE when you sign up for our newsletter below.

As a result, IDC anticipates reduced production volumes among budget Android handsets. Fewer models are expected to reach market as manufacturers scale back to protect profitability.

Premium Smartphones Expected to Remain Resilient

IDC indicates that premium handsets, including the bulk of Apple Inc.’s iPhone lineup, are positioned to withstand the disruption more effectively. Higher average selling prices in the premium segment provide greater flexibility to absorb component cost increases.

If lower-cost Android production declines while premium volumes remain comparatively stable, Apple could expand its share of the global smartphone market in 2026, even as overall industry shipments fall.

The forecast does not indicate that Apple will be immune to supply constraints. However, IDC’s data suggests the structural economics of the premium segment offer greater resilience during prolonged component shortages.