Apple Set to Surpass Samsung as Global Smartphone Leader Thanks to iPhone 17

Apple is set to reclaim its position as the top smartphone maker in the world, driven by the strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. A new Counterpoint Research report cited by Bloomberg estimates Apple will see a 10% rise in iPhone shipments in 2025, beating Samsung’s projected 4.6% growth.

Apple’s early numbers for the iPhone 17 launch already show the shift. In the first month, sales jumped 22% while the overall smartphone market fell 2.7%. October continued the momentum with a 37% year-over-year rise in iPhone sales compared to the market’s 8% growth.

Market Share Shift and Key Drivers

Apple is now expected to close 2025 with a 19.4% global smartphone market share, enough to edge past Samsung. Counterpoint credits this shift not just to the strength of the iPhone 17 but also to the peak of a major upgrade cycle. Many users who bought phones during the COVID-19 boom are now due for an upgrade. On top of that, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, and a portion of those buyers are expected to move to new models next.

Also Read: Did iPhone Air Do Justice to the Death of the Plus Model?

Apple Could Stay on Top Until 2029

The report suggests Apple may retain the number one spot until at least 2029. Key contributors will be future products like the foldable iPhone and the budget-focused iPhone 17e, both expected to expand the brand’s reach.

This projection aligns with Apple’s internal expectations. In its recent earnings call, Tim Cook said the holiday quarter could be the biggest in company history. He highlighted strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, although the response to the iPhone Air variant has been mixed.

Would Apple becoming the world’s top smartphone maker again make any difference to you as a buyer?