Apple analyst Ming Chi Kuo has some good news about the new iPhone. He predicts that the iPhone 11 and new Pro range will have a strong launch. Kuo’s TF International Securities analyst firm predicts that the 11 and Pro series will sell up to 75 million units, just in 2019.
This prediction and others were seen in a TF International Securities research note by Apple Insider. The note also makes a raft of other predictions about the iPhone 11 and Pro line.
Ming Chi Kuo Predicts Strong iPhone 11 Sales, Revises Forecast Upwards
The main prediction the paper makes is, as mentioned, a very strong launch for the new iPhones. Earlier, TF International Securities had predicted slightly weaker iPhone sales, between 65 million to 70 million units. In the paper, Kuo cites several reasons for increasing the forecast.
He sees Chinese demand for the iPhone 11 as being stronger than US demand. This has to do with the lower-priced iPhone 11 being perceived as “an excellent upgrade choice.” Many iPhone users in China with the iPhone 6, 6S, and 7 see the 11 as a solid upgrade at a price point they’re comfortable with.
In the US, while Pro sales are doing better than sales for the iPhone 11, Kuo still sees strong demand for a lower-priced iPhone. While the US market isn’t quite as price-sensitive as China, there are lots of users who see a mid-priced iPhone as the best choice.
Kuo had something to say about the US-China trade war, too. He believes that Apple’s end customer pricing model is not going to be affected by tariffs, direct or indirect. Instead, he believes Apple will absorb any tariff hike by taking a hit to profits.
Kuo predicted earlier that Apple would partially mitigate the impact of tariffs through its expansion plans in India and Vietnam.
One possible proxy for this prediction is Apple Watch pricing. Year-on-year pricing for the Apple Watch has not changed, despite the trade war. At the end of the day, this means that iPhone users will benefit from consistent pricing, regardless of externalities.